terms

  • ad: aggregate demand; total amount of goods/services demanded at price level
  • sras/lras: aggregate supply; changes happen on y axis, x is response
    • sras: short run; how much real gdp firms supply at price level, can be curved (but linear here)
      • ‘gdp firms supply’ is total output firms choose to produce, i.e. total production
    • lras: long run; change in price level will net the same gdp from firms after everything settles, straight vertical line
  • e: equilibrium; firms produce exactly amount buyers want to buy

ad-as model

  • increase in money supply shifts ad right (more money to spend)
  • real gdp increases before sras adjusts price level increases at e
  • wages increase push sras curve left price level increases at e
  • i.e. increasing money supply permanently increases price level

seignorage

  • seignorage: profits made from government printing more currency
  • inflation tax, reduction in value of money held by public to account for increased money printed to account for, e.g., budget deficit

output gap x unemployment

  • “1. When actual aggregate output is equal to potential output, the actual unemployment rate is equal to the natural rate of unemployment.”
  • “2. When the output gap is positive (an inflationary gap), the unemployment rate is below the natural rate. When the output gap is negative (a recessionary gap), the unemployment rate is above the natural rate.”
  • natural rate unemployment when producing at potential
  • high unemployment does not shift sras right
  • tight labor market sras shifts left when wages increase
  • output gap horizontal distance between sras e and lras before it adjusts back
  • okun’s law: 2% in output gap 1% in unemployment gap

short run phillips curve

  • x = unemployment rate, y = inflation rate, downwards trend
  • down-right line based on negative correlation

expected inflation

  • contracts, wages, etc based on expectation
  • rising prices make paying higher wages more affordable, firm output sells for more
  • shifts sr phillips curve up by that amount

long run phillips curve

  • inflation expectations subside, short run phillips curve shifts back to long run
  • vertical line like the lras
  • nairu: nonaccelerating inflation rate of unemployment, i.e. keeping unemployment rate below nairu leads to accelerating inflation, cannot be maintained

disinflation

  • keeping unemployment below natural rate leads to accelerated inflation
  • us retreat from high inflation at beginning of 1980s cost 18% real gdp

deflation

  • falling aggregate price level, common before wwii
  • interest rate falls as a consequence, money will be worth more later
  • zero bound: interest rate will never reach 0% as consumers will hold money
  • liquidity trap: hoarding money supply as it increases value